Investing During Uncertain Times
Investing during uncertain times
Economists are predicting a recession in many countries around the world. Although the severity of this looming recession is debatable, the factors driving it, such as ongoing geopolitical issues, rising inflation and more, are not. These factors have and will continue to impact the global economy and all investment asset classes.
However, despite this less-than-ideal global investment backdrop, real estate investments can still provide positive returns, and with an excess of liquidity in the region, GCC investors should be looking to diversify their portfolio, and international real estate is an attractive option.
In particular, prospects for investments in multifamily housing remains appealing. Multifamily housing is an asset class which has historically provided stable returns and is seen as a relatively safe investment through economic cycles and recessionary times. The US multifamily real estate market is a great space to invest in right now. This is due in part to lingering supply chain issues precipitating a shortage of inventory and thus a lack of new builds in single family housing, the sales of which are predicted to drop to their lowest levels since 2011. This, as well as demographic changes, has resulted in a huge demand for rentals, rising rent prices, and a steady stream of renters, with occupancy rates around 96.5% and an average 10% increase in rental rates occurring across many US states.
When considering an investment in this asset class, there are a number of factors to keep in mind. As they say, “location, location, location”. The property should be in an area that is growing economically and a neighborhood with plans for development. The property must also provide convenient access to amenities.
Investors must also consider the Entry cap rate, or the property's projected first-year Net Operating Income divided by the purchase price of the property, which should be above the debt rate offered by federal agencies or commercial lending entities. Investors must also carefully account for future expenses (CapEx) such as costs involved in maintaining and enhancing the property towards the goal of justified rental increases. Also, in these uncertain times, it is vital to ensure that robust downside protection strategies are in place to protect the investment from market downturns. Fixed profit rates should be locked in from day one, with refinancing of the property done once the profit rates are stabilised. In addition, investment managers must be vigilant in ensuring optimum operating performance, including maintaining high occupancy rates and high levels of property maintenance throughout the holding period, in order to facilitate refinancing or exit of the asset at favourable terms.